Me yasa Farashin Kayan Kayan Kayan Abinci na PVC ke Haɓakawa a cikin 2026? Nazari Mai Aikata Ga 'Yan Wasan Masana'antu

Me yasa Farashin Kayan Kayan Kayan Abinci na PVC ke Haɓakawa a cikin 2026? Nazari Mai Aikata Ga 'Yan Wasan Masana'antu

Idan kana cikin masana'antar PVC{0} da ke da alaƙa - ko kai masana'anta ne, manajan sayayya, ko mai kasuwanci kamar mu a Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd. - tabbas kun ji ƙima kwanan nan. Tun daga Maris 2026, farashin albarkatun kasa na PVC ya yi tashin gwauron zabi da ba a taba ganin irinsa ba, kuma ba wai canjin kasuwa ba ne kawai. A yau, zan rushe ainihin dalilan da ke bayan wannan hauhawar farashin, tare da ingantaccen bayanai da dabaru na masana'antu, don taimaka muku fahimtar abin da ke faruwa da yadda zaku amsa.

Da farko, bari mu kai ga gaskiyar: ethylene - tushen PVC ya yi tsalle sama da kashi 26%, kuma tushen PVC na calcium carbide{2} da kusan kashi 24% cikin ƴan makonni. Don Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd., wanda ke mayar da hankali kan kayan rumfa da zanen talla (dukansu sun dogara sosai akan PVC), wannan yana nufin farashin samarwa mafi girma da yanke shawarar siye. Amma don kewaya wannan guguwar, da farko muna buƙatar sanime yasayana faruwa.

1. Babban Direba: Matsalolin farashi Daga Fuskokin Biyu

Hanyoyin samar da PVC na kasar Sin sun mamaye hanyar alli carbide (fiye da 80% na jimlar iya aiki), tare da hanyar ethylene da ke yin sauran. Duk hanyoyin biyu suna fuskantar hauhawar farashi mai yawa, kuma ga cikakkun bayanai:

Don tushen PVC carbide{0}: Farashin calcium carbide, mabuɗin albarkatun ƙasa, yana ci gaba da hauhawa. A ranar 16 ga Maris, farashin sinadarin calcium carbide ya kai yuan 2,486, kuma wasu yankuna ma sun kai yuan 2,910/ton. Babban dalilai guda biyu ne ke da laifi: hauhawar farashin kwal (wanda ke haɓaka farashin makamashi don samar da sinadarin calcium carbide) da tsauraran yanayin muhalli da tsaro a manyan wuraren da ake samarwa kamar Inner Mongoliya da Shaanxi, waɗanda suka rage ƙarfin samarwa da kuma ƙarfafa samar da kayayyaki.

Don PVC mai tushen ethylene{0}: Matsalar ta fito ne daga kasuwar danyen mai ta duniya. A ranar 28 ga watan Fabrairu ne Amurka da Isra'ila suka kaddamar da hare-haren soji kan kasar Iran, sannan Iran ta mayar da martani ta hanyar toshe mashigin Hormuz - wata muhimmiyar hanya mai dauke da kashi 20% na cinikin man fetur a duniya. Farashin danyen mai na Brent ya yi tashin gwauron zabi sama da dalar Amurka 118/ganga, kuma hakan ya tayar da farashin ethylene kai tsaye. A Gabashin China, farashin ethylene ya tashi da sama da kashi 45 cikin dari a cikin makonni biyu kacal, daga yuan/ton 6,000 zuwa yuan 8,800-10,000. Ya zuwa ranar 16 ga Maris, makomar PVC kuma tana yin ciniki mai ƙarfi akan yuan 5,831 / ton, tare da haɓaka 4.97% a rana ɗaya, yana nuna fargabar kasuwa game da hauhawar farashin.

2. Tattara Samfura: The "Amplifier" na Farashin Hikes

Matsakaicin farashi shine babban direba, amma ƙarancin wadata ya sa lamarin ya yi muni. Mu duba bayanan:

A cikin gida, aikin masana'antar PVC ya ragu zuwa 78.49% a cikin Maris saboda kulawar bazara ta yau da kullun ta manyan kamfanoni. Menene ƙari, kusan babu wani sabon ƙarfin da ake ƙarawa a cikin 2026, kuma ana cire tsofaffin ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki, don haka haɓakar samar da kayayyaki na shekara bai wuce 1%. A ketare, al'amura sun ma fi tsayi: sama da tan miliyan 2 na karfin PVC an rufe su a Turai, Japan, da Amurka saboda tsadar makamashi da matsin muhalli, wanda ya kara bunkasa bukatar kayayyakin PVC na kasar Sin.

3. Buƙatar Mai Sauƙi: "Tallafawa" Bayan Tafiya

Sabanin hauhawar farashin da aka yi a baya ta hanyar farashi kawai, wannan lokacin akwai kuma sauƙi mai sauƙi a cikin buƙatar samar da tallafi. Godiya ga tabbatattun manufofin ci gaban kasar Sin, manufar "tabbatar da samar da gidaje" da kuma hanzarta ayyukan samar da ababen more rayuwa sun haifar da bukatar bututun PVC da bayanan martaba. A karshen watan Fabrairu, yawan aiki na bututun PVC da kamfanonin bayanan martaba ya karu zuwa 62%, karuwar maki 11{4} daga karshen kwata na hudu na 2025.

Bukatun kasashen ketare kuma yana karuwa. Kwanan nan Indiya ta soke takardar shedar BIS da hana aikin jibgewa a kan PVC na kasar Sin, kuma tare da rufe ikon ketare, PVC ta China ta zama mafi tsada{2}} gasa. An yi kiyasin cewa kayayyakin da kasar Sin za ta fitar za ta karu da kashi 20 cikin 100 a bana, wanda ke taimakawa wajen shawo kan farashin kayayyaki a cikin gida da kuma tallafi. Ga kamfanoni kamar namu a Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd., wannan haɓakar fitarwa kuma yana kawo sabbin damammaki a cikin matsin farashi.

4. Menene Wannan yake nufi garemu? (Shawarwari Mai Kyau)

A matsayin wanda ke aiki a masana'antar- kuma yana magana daga kwarewar Hubei Jinlong - kewaya wannan hauhawar farashin yana buƙatar bincike mai natsuwa, ba firgita ba. Masu sharhi sun ce yanayin farashin nan gaba ya dogara ne kacokan akan abubuwa biyu: tashe-tashen hankula a yankin gabas ta tsakiya da kuma hauhawar farashin danyen mai. Idan rikici ya sauƙaƙa kuma farashin mai ya faɗi, farashin albarkatun ƙasa na PVC na iya daidaitawa; amma idan rikici ya ci gaba ko kuma kula da muhalli ya tsananta, farashin zai tsaya tsayin daka.

Ga kamfanoni kamar Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd., ga ƴan shawarwari masu amfani: Na farko, a sa ido sosai kan sauye-sauyen kasuwa, musamman farashin ɗanyen mai da kuma farashin carbide na calcium, don guje wa sayayya makaho. Na biyu, inganta dabarun siyan kaya - misali, kulle cikin dogon lokaci{4} kwangilolin samar da kayayyaki don daidaita farashi, kamar yadda wasu manyan masana'antu suka yi don kulle farashin albarkatun ƙasa a farkon rabin farkon 2026. Na uku, daidaita tsare-tsaren samarwa yadda ya kamata, mai da hankali kan samfuran da aka ƙara{6}}daraja{7}, da rage tasirin fashe.

A takaice, wannan hauhawar farashin albarkatun kasa na PVC ba gajeriyar magana ba ce - - haɗe ne na rikice-rikice na geopolitical, matsin farashi, ƙarancin wadata, da buƙatu mai sauƙi. Ga dukkanmu a cikin masana'antar, fahimtar waɗannan direbobi shine mataki na farko don tsira har ma da bunƙasa a cikin wannan kasuwa maras nauyi. Mu a Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd. muna kuma daidaita dabarun mu don dacewa da sauye-sauyen kasuwa, kuma za mu ci gaba da mai da hankali kan samar da ingantattun samfura masu inganci yayin gudanar da hadurran farashi yadda ya kamata.